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A nomogram to predict gestational diabetes mellitus: a multicenter retrospective study
Rui Zhang1 , Zhangyan Li1 , Nuerbiya Xilifu1,2 , Mengxue Yang1 , Yongling Dai2 , Shufei Zang1,* , Jun Liu1,*
1Department of Endocrinology, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
2Endocrine Metabolism Department, The Second People’s Hospital of Kashgar Prefecture, Kashi City 844000, China
*Correspondence to:Jun Liu , Email:liu__jun@fudan.edu.cn Shufei Zang , Email:sophiazsf@fudan.edu.cn
J Mol Cell Biol, Volume 17, Issue 3, March 2025, mjaf008,  https://doi.org/10.1093/jmcb/mjaf008
Keyword: gestational diabetes mellitus, risk factors, nomogram

While gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) poses great threat to the health of mothers and children, there is no standard early prediction model for this disease yet. This study developed and evaluated a nomogram for predicting GDM in early pregnancy. Overall, 1824 pregnant women were randomly divided into the training and internal validation sets in the ratio of 7:3, with additional 1604 pregnant women for external validation. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model for GDM, and a nomogram was utilized for model visualization. Risk factors in the prediction model involved age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, reproductive history, family history of diabetes, creatinine level, triglyceride level, low-density lipoprotein level, neutrophil count, and monocyte count. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision clinical analysis (DCA). The area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.804 for the training set, and similar AUC values were obtained for the internal (0.800) and external (0.829) validation sets, verifying the stability of the model. The calibration curves showed that the probabilities of GDM predicted by the nomogram highly correlated with the observed frequency values. The DCA curves indicated that the prediction model is clinically useful, thus potentially aiding early pregnancy management in women.